Hide from the Wind, Run from the Sea...

Thursday morning.

Eleven days ago Ike was just a tropical depression, 3955 miles away. Since then it has wobbled and dithered, strengthened and faltered, meandering across the Atlantic ocean and the Gulf of Mexico all the way to - quite literally - my door step. On the way it became a Category 4 Hurricane and dropped its shoulder, smashing into Haiti and Cuba, killing hundreds of people and destroying whatever had somehow survived Dolly, Edouard, Gustav and Josephine.

With the limp exception of Edouard, none of that had come anywhere near us here. And as of Wednesday lunchtime that was what we expected of Ike too. But, uncannily, the storm pivoted, span around like a drunk looking for a fight and set of with heavy inevitability for the swadge of coastline directly in front of Houston - the third (or fourth) most populous city in the United States.

Thursday was sunny and warm with gentle breezes. 'A good day to get ready,' said my best friend Gene Norman, who is (as you'll know) Chief Meteorologist of KHOU Channel 11 News. The Mayor of Houston, Bill White, and the Judge of Harris County, Ed Emmett, came on the TV and made it clear what was going to happen. A list of ZIP codes was announced - people who lived here were told to evacuate as soon as possible. Mandatory. Everybody else was told to stay and shelter in place - the last thing they wanted after Rita (2005) was for the entire population of the city to try and get on the road at the same time. The imperative was to let people in mortal danger get out.

With both the boys at school and Laura toiling away out of town, I knew had a spare morning to try and snaffle a few more supplies before we had to batten down the hatches. Petrol stations were beginning to run dry and it looked like half of Texas had the same shopping list as me but I couldn't believe how polite and, well, almost British everyone was being.

Firstly, I went to Academy (basically a Texas-sized Millets). Expecting a power-outage, I wanted a cool box and a camping stove. The middle-aged woman who came in the door with me wanted the same things and we ended up side by side looking at the last gas stove on the shelf.

'You have it,' she said.

'Not at all,' I said, knowing I had the upper hand being actually British: no Yank was going to out-defer me... 'You got there first, you should take it.'

'Let's flip for it,' she said. And wouldn't take no for an answer. So she called Heads and I tossed a shiny quarter. It came down Montana cow skull (that's Tails) and she gave me the box.

Boy, did I feel bad.

I slunk about, found my cool box and some batteries and started looking for propane cannisters. There was a huge pyramid of gas stoves. And the woman. Phew. So we laughed about that and started discussing how many gas cannisters to get. An enormous man leaned over and whispered, 'Get a case.'

The scariest thing about that shop? The people rubbing their chins in the gun aisle. And - instead of sweets on the checkout - Remington shot gun cartridges.

I went to the supermarket and bought some more water and tins of food. With every storm I've bought a few more items but I'm still about two major storms away from being totally equipped, I think. I don't have an axe. And I don't have plywood for the windows but I'm still not convinced we need that. It's difficult to tell. Anyway the supermarket was a less decorous affair. There were no trolleys to be had for one thing and they were running low on water. People in Academy were swapping conspiratorial smiles - here there were shifty accusatory glances and I was glad to get home.

Back on the TV, the Governor of Texas, Rick Perry was issuing some stern stuff from the podium. He cuts an impressive figure and is tipped for big things by Republicans and it's easy to see why. The relevant authorities have impressed me throughout - they have had a plan and it has worked. So far at least. If this was eight years ago then it would be George W. Bush trying to reassure me. That's even scarier than Ike isn't it?

 

Galveston is the sliver of land marked A which is tonight under water. Galveston Bay, above it and to the right, funnels the surge water far inland. Central Houston (i.e. us) is off the map to the north.

I should point out that a hurricane like Ike has three elements of danger: sea surge, wind and rain. The first of these is the most dangerous. As the storm approaches land, it harries the water in front of it, creating massive waves that swamp the coast. Whilst Ike is currently a cat 2 storm, the surge effect is much stronger - more like a cat 4 or 5. Very serious indeed. This means that Galveston Island, the Bolivar Peninsula and the coast about Galveston Bay are either underwater or besieged. In these places the water level is going to rise to as much as twenty feet above normal. This is why mandatory evacuation orders were given. What I can not explain is why 25,000 people in Galveston (a sand bar with a highest point of 10 foot above sea level) have ignored those orders and are, in the words of the National Weather Service, 'facing certain death.' Each to his own I suppose.

Friday Morning

KHOU has been broadcasting rolling hurricane news since breakfast yesterday. All the time they've repeated the same maxim: 'Hide from the wind, run from the sea.' It might be the state motto for all I know but as advice goes it is simultaneously frightening and reassuring. The coverage itself is gripping television and is reminiscent of election night broadcasts - it's live, they keep cutting to reporters around the country and there is the same sense of anticipation. Instead of swingometers there are radar, wind speed monitors and a mind-numbing array of graphics. The reporters are amazing - delivering lines to camera whilst leaning into the wind at crazy angles, rain whipping at their faces and constantly name-checking the camera men - that's a bad sign in my book.

With every forecast the lurid swirl of Ike, curled like a fist, gets closer and closer. He is a truly enormous storm - six hundred miles across if you can believe it. This is actually a good thing - if it was smaller it would be spinning faster and be stronger. As it is he is a little unwieldy and that may make a big difference. It's 10pm as I type (4am BST) and we currently have very strong winds blowing outside, but no rain. We are safe from the flooding, but there is the slight chance of a tornado ripping up the street.

We'll just have to wait and see!

Friday Evening.

The middle of the storm is expected to hit about midnight - that will be hurricane force winds and rain - and Ike should have moved on by tea-time. Although the centre of the storm is, freakishly, going to mow straight through the middle of down town Houston, we are slightly to the left of that and consequently not on the 'dirty' side of the storm. At this range it may not make much difference I guess.

We are expecting to lose power any time so I'll post this straight away. We will be off line for a considerable amount of time: power could be out for many days. We are all fine and confident. The boys are bright and bonny.

As soon as we're back up we'll let you know what's happened next!